How to set a marathon goal that is ambitious but not delusional

The fastest way to ruin a marathon is to pick the wrong goal time and chase it for 18 miles before the wheels come off. I have done it. It is a long, lonely walk to the finish. Here is how I pick a goal now, after learning the hard way.

Start with a recent race, not a dream

Take your most recent half marathon or 10K and run it through the predictor. That number is your starting point, the time your current speed says you can run if your endurance holds up. Write it down. Do not negotiate with it yet.

Apply the long-run test

Now the honest part. Look at your long runs over the last two months.

• If you have several runs of 18 to 20 miles and they felt controlled, trust the prediction.
• If your long runs top out around 13 to 15 miles, add five to ten minutes to the prediction. Your engine is ready but your fuel tank is not quite there.
• If you have barely run beyond 10 miles, this is a finish-and-enjoy-it marathon, not a time-goal marathon, and that is a completely valid choice.

Pick a goal, a backup, and a floor

I set three numbers for every marathon.

• Goal: the time I am training for and will go after if the day is good.
• Backup: about three minutes slower, the pace I drop to if mile 20 feels hard.
• Floor: the time I will be proud of no matter what, usually my previous personal best.

Having all three means a tough day becomes a smaller win instead of a total collapse. You are never out of a good race, you just move to the next number.

Build the pace band around the goal, run the day around the band

Once you have a goal, build a pace band for it with even or slightly negative splits, and obey it in the early miles even when you feel amazing. Especially when you feel amazing. The marathon does not reward bravery in the first half. It rewards patience, and then it rewards whatever you have left.

A good goal is one you have a real shot at on a good day, would be happy to just miss on an average day, and have a plan to back away from on a bad day. Set it there, train honestly, and the race tends to take care of itself.